Do the Odds of Success Really Matter?
By Marcy Kennedy (@MarcyKennedy)
I have a creative’s heart and a scientist’s mind. I like facts and formulas. I like logic. I like percentages and statistics.
I don’t like when the odds aren’t in my favor on something I really want. Because I have a strong rational side, odds that aren’t in my favor make me want to move on to something with a better chance of success.
I’ve been feeling that way lately listening to the talk about the publishing world. Traditionally, odds of success as a writer were terrible. According to the BEA’s industry analysis, as late as 2004 writers had a 93% failure rate. Most books published sold less than 1,000 copies, and authors were always told not to quit their day jobs because they wouldn’t be able to make a full-time living from their work.
Then the self-publishing boom hit, and for a little while, it seemed like things were changing. We fed our dreams on stories of people like Amanda Hocking and, more recently, Hugh Howey. We started to hear about writers who couldn’t have made a living in traditional publishing now bringing in full-time income as self-published authors.
But how many? Behind the scenes, there were also a lot of writers who were frustrated and discouraged because they weren’t making a full-time living, especially now that the early gold rush season is past. In fact, a survey in 2011 of self-published authors found that the average amount earned was $10,000. Half of the authors surveyed made less than $500/year. That’s okay as a bonus but certainly not enough to live on.
So we have to ask ourselves if we’re going to listen to the odds, or if we’re going to be like a Corellian and flip the odds the bird.
In Star Wars Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back, Corellian Han Solo, Princess Leia, and the droid C-3PO are being chased by Empire ships intent on destroying them. Han decides to head into an asteroid field because the Empire ships won’t be able to follow them (at least not as easily).
“Sir,” C-3PO says, “the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field is approximately 3,720 to one.”
Han doesn’t even ease up on his speed. “Never tell me the odds!”
C-3PO telling Han the odds and Han ignoring them becomes a running joke in the movie, but it’s based in the idea that in the Star Wars universe, people from Han’s home world of Corellia don’t care about the odds.
My husband, one of the biggest Star Wars fans I know, couldn’t tell me why Corellians ignore the odds, so I went digging to learn more about Corellians and see if I could solve the puzzle.
What I discovered was Corellians don’t just ignore the odds because they’re crazy or stupid. It’s not that the numbers don’t matter. (Because let’s face it, we’d be fool-hardy to completely ignore the numbers.)
So what makes Corellians feel like they can beat the odds? And what makes them succeed at beating the odds?
Corellians like a challenge.
If you’re the type of person who when someone says “you can’t,” replies with “watch me,” then you understand the love of a challenge. When Corellians look at a situation where they have a 10% chance of success, they hear that it’s not hopeless. As long as it’s not hopeless, they believe they’re the ones who’ll beat the odds, so they take a chance and try.
Corellians trust their skills and abilities.
When Han Solo flew into the asteroid field, when he later made a direct attack on a Star Destroyer, he did it because he was an amazing pilot. He had years of practice. Corellians ignore and beat the odds because they know where their abilities lie, they’re prepared, and they know how to use their skills to the best of their advantage.
Corellians are extremely adaptable.
Corellians’ innovative natures are a large contributor to their disregard for the odds because they can adapt when it looks like the odds aren’t going to go in their favor and find a way to get around whatever the obstacle is.
When Han Solo made the direct attack on the Star Destroyer, he hid on top of the command tower so the Star Destroyer couldn’t detect them. The problem was they couldn’t move because as soon as they left their position, they’d be spotted. But Destroyers vent their waste before going to hyperspace. And that gave Han the opportunity to have their ship drift off with the waste.
What do you think? Should we let the odds discourage us? Or should we take a lesson from Corellians and find a way to beat them?
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Jun 17, 2013 @ 12:53:31
I never look at the odds when there’s something I need to do. Odds were that I wouldn’t get cancer at age 20. Odds were that I would never break out of my personal history to be anything but the Queen of a Double Wide with four kids and five baby daddies. Odds were that I would never graduate law school or publish a novel. Why waste time looking at odds? It only takes one chance. Life gives us opportunities, not guarantees, so as long as opportunities are present, looking at odds is nothing but mental masturbation.
Jun 17, 2013 @ 13:01:40
You’d make a perfect Corellian 🙂 That’s the conclusion I came to as well as I thought about it this past week. I’ve seen so many situations in my life where the odds were wrong. As long as there’s some chance, if it’s important to you, it’s worth fighting for.
Jun 17, 2013 @ 13:21:30
Hi Marcy,
I saw this in your newsletter and couldn’t resist commenting. My standard advice to fellow writers: Having success with one of your books (greater than 10,000 copies sold, to pick a number) is like winning Power Ball, but you can’t win if you don’t play the game. A corollary: Don’t give up your day job!
I met Avery Corman at BooksNJ a week ago Sunday. He was asked whether having a movie made from one of his books (Kramer vs. Kramer) change his writing life. His answer was an emphatic yes. This is another lottery an author can win.
My scientific life was intertwined with the world of probabilities and statistics and the cold logic you need to apply in order to handle them. So, how can I play the above games or any others related to today’s publishing world? It’s a bit like going to Las Vegas or Atlantic City (closer to us in NJ). If you want to gamble, it’s best to determine a figure, any figure, and tell yourself that’s your fun money and you will gamble up to the point where that’s gone.
I think writing is a lot more fun than gambling, though. The emotional benefits I receive from writing are more rewarding too. But I use the same strategy: I’m willing to put some money into my writing and expect to sell enough books to recover the investment. Indie publishing has made small investments possible. So does traditional publishing if you have good backing from your publisher.
However, we have to spend a lot of time doing what we love (writing) and tolerating what we don’t (editing, PR, and marketing)–that’s just part of the game. Moreover, there are other ways to invest in your writing that don’t cost anything (free promos at KDP, for example) and help tremendously toward name recognition.
It’s a game we’re willing to play because we love to write.
r/Steve
Jun 17, 2013 @ 14:27:06
I love your point about determining a figure and sticking to it, just like you would at a casino. That’s another tactic I’m taking. My husband and I set a figure and that’s what I have to work with when it comes to producing my books (much like investing into any start-up business). That’s a risk I’m willing to take. After that, the plan is to reinvest money made on those books into future books rather than always having to pump outside money into it. I think that’s a smart way to go about it because you’re only risking a set amount. If the books you originally invest in don’t earn enough to finance future books, then it forces to you ask yourself why rather than thinking you can solve the problem if you just throw even more money at it.
Jun 17, 2013 @ 15:22:29
Hi Marcy,
Well, some of the budget is also “per book,” which allows a wee bit of leeway when it comes to getting the next book out. The latter is one of the most important things a writer can do, even from the marketing and PR perspective. With four or more books, you can have rolling free promos on KDP Select, for example–this makes even more sense if the books are in a series. But, these days, I also think readers look to see how many books an author has–just my perception. It’s the fiction writer’s version of the “publish or perish” syndrome of academia, I guess.
With a per-book budget for reviews, for example, you can always go back to an older book and look for reviews for it after a time–again, especially good for a series where you’re promoting the whole series. My per-book budget for reviews is also small, though, so I value volunteer reviewers who have downloaded one of my freebies, say, and decide to review it.
Again, the best PR and marketing sometimes is free. You can be an interviewee at someone’s website or do a guest post to someone’s blog (some are not allowing a link back to the author’s site, so be careful). Another trick: stuff a business card with your website’s URL in snail-mail bills that you mail in–you only pay the cost of the card and/or postage and a few people will see your card and check you out.
The point is that the budget can be stretched out quite a bit and still do some good at increasing the odds of having a successful book. The best advice? Don’t worry about it! If you work hard at your writing and produce quality, marketable books, you have to be having fun. There are ups and downs, but it’s all part of the game.
r/Steve
Jun 17, 2013 @ 17:03:59
With anything where the ‘odds’ are calculated, I tend to rewrite the equation so it’s an even 50/50 split. I either will or I won’t win the lottery. I will either sell this story or I won’t … this frees up a whole lot of energy that I can put where it will make a difference, things I can truly influence … like your Han analogy.
Jun 17, 2013 @ 20:17:36
I think those who tell you “the odds are against you, so why bother” are jealous that they never followed their own dreams. Misery loves company, after all. Fact is, if you pursue your passion, money will follow. I even ignored the “don’t quit your day job” mantra. Because if I continued my day job, then it was a crutch that kept me from pursuing my passion. How will I ever know if I can beat the so-called odds unless I give it 110%? So that’s what I’m doing. And yes, I ignore any post or message that tells me don’t bother, only the famous will make money and the rest of you are just fooling yourself.
After all, every single one of those famous people started exactly where I am right now…with nothing. If they did it, why not me?
Jun 18, 2013 @ 01:29:36
I love this 🙂
Jun 18, 2013 @ 01:30:18
hmmm, not THIS this, Kaye’s response LOL. Otherwise I’m just in love with myself which…yeah. lol
Where’s a delete button when you need one?
Jun 17, 2013 @ 22:38:16
Any gambler knows there are ways of playing the odds.
I supported myself playing music full-time for 30+ yrs. Most would-be musicians fail because they seek stardom, so they limit themselves to only one style of music–and too many focus on appearance over skill. They end up working a day job to support themselves while playing music as a hobby on the weekends–if they don’t quit altogether. I succeeded because I learned to play everything while constantly improving my skill and approaching music as a business.
The odds include those writers who are more concerned with achieving wealth and fame than they are with increasing their skill. Many turn up their noses at writing something other than what they love to read themselves. In one book on writing, Dean Koontz stated he wrote romances under a pen name then used the money to support himself while he worked on the books which ultimately propelled him to best-seller status. I took a Master Class in writing with an author who worked as a technical writer to support herself while she worked on her novels. One of my friends uses his vacation time to travel each year, then writes a travel book about the area he visited and uses the vacation as a tax write-off!
My point is that there are lots of opportunities for making money that many writers ignore. To me, success isn’t fame or wealth: it’s the ability to support myself doing what I love. And I think the best way to achieve success is to learn as much as possible about the craft of writing and the field of publishing. Take every opportunity to earn money that comes your way, and set aside a little time each day for education. That’s the best way to tip the odds in your favor. And that’s why sites like this one are so important!
Jun 17, 2013 @ 23:03:52
I think we needed to be grounded in reality, but have a healthy dose of optimism. I’m with my boy Han though in that I don’t want to know the (exact) odds. That’s what keeps the optimism alive.
Patricia Rickrode
w/a Jansen Schmidt
Jun 18, 2013 @ 02:09:21
Do we let the odds discourage us? I don’t pay attention to the odds. Never have. Things change so fast in our world. It makes it difficult to count on anything. I think you have to love what you do no matter what. If you get some recognition for your work, that is gratifying. If not, you just keep on going to the next story and the next story because it’s what you do. And what you love. It’s a balance that gives you inner gratification. In the end, you need to be happy and at peace with yourself. 🙂
Jun 18, 2013 @ 14:04:40
I think letting the odds discourage you is giving up from the start. You can’t accomplish what you don’t believe in. If you think it’s impossible, then it probably is… for you. I think we should aim high and strive to reach those goals because although we might not reach them, we will at least rise above the low goals we could have set for ourselves.
Jun 18, 2013 @ 14:47:11
Aiming high rather than low in order to push ourselves is a great idea. I’ve tried this when it comes to daily word counts. If I set myself a goal of 1,000 words, that’s all I hit. If I set my goal at 5,000 words (which I’ve never hit), I can often end up with 1,500 to 2,500.
Jun 26, 2013 @ 11:24:37
I agree with Melinda. It is scary to go for your dreams and some people let the odds stop them. But, the thing is: somebody is going to succeed. Why not have it be us? That’s what I try and hold on to. And, you can’t live out your dream if you never try. Sometimes while working toward one goal, we find others along the way and we become someone even bigger and more complete than when we started. Ok, now I sound like a Hallmark card. I’ll stop. Great post! 🙂